Monday @ Roland Garros saw us enter the winners enclosure a couple of times, while also experiencing a few more frustrating losses. Of the losses today, Paul Henri Mathieu was probably the most frustrating as his was in five sets, at a high level, @ over 3.00 SP. Mathieu is incredibly talented and I really like him but he can sometimes let himself down at crucial moments. Anyway, he was odds-on at one stage in the fifth set today so there was ample opportunity to lay off the bet for a decent profit. John Isner annihilated Carlos Berlocq today like I thought he would. In a sense, that might have been one of the bets of the tournament. He is a big match player, and to get him at odds of 2.12 versus a Mickey Mouse player like Carlos Berlocq was a bit of a surprise to me. Isner played some great stuff today and his route opens up a little now so he could be one to watch for sure. Other positive notes today were Gulbis, Janowicz, and of course Gael Monfils. I availed of the even money on offer for Le Monf just before he lost the third set tie break. While it was looking bleak for a while after that, he came through and made it a green day for me today. More importantly, he also took Tomas Berdych out of the Gulbis draw and that could prove vital. I still think Monfils will provide a stern test for Ernie but he has played a lot of tennis in recent weeks, including today's gruelling five-setter and I am pretty sure Gulbis will prevail.
Just briefly to mention some of the losing bets I have recommended. It would be very easy to pick the vast majority, if not all of the 1.20 and 1.30 winners on any given day, but what we are trying to give here is some value, hence the suggestions @ 3.00 and 2.50 - for example Alund today. I know Mathieu lost today but he began @ 3.10 and was odds on at 1-1 0-30 on the Nieminen serve in the fifth set so that cannot be called a bad recommendation, even accepting that he lost! If you do go for some of the larger-priced recommendations, lay them off if you are in a winning position! That's my advice!
Anyway, looking at tomorrow, I am going to recommend about five or six bets and then give my winner from all the remaining matches:
Delbonis v Reister: Federico Delbonis is available @ 2.58 for this match tomorrow against the German qualifier, Julian Reister. While the qualifying rounds wIl have given Reister a feel for the courts here, I think Delbonis is a more assured clay-courter and I think 2.58 is much too high for his chances. I see this match as a fifty/fifty shot best case for Reister and so I recommend backing the Argentine @ 2.58.
Pella v Dodig: Guido Pella has been making a bit of a name for himself in the last few weeks and months. Just last week he played fantastic tennis in Dusseldorf at the Power Horse Cup and I think the left-handed Argentine will prove a handful for Ivan Dodig. I like Dodig, he is a fighter and I think this could well go five sets. Pella is a bit of a shot-maker and I have been impressed with him lately. I am recommending the confident Argentine @ 2.56 to win the match. It represents good value in my opinion - Pella in five.
Tomic v Hanescu: This is an interesting one! There is no doubt that Bernard Tomic is a better tennis player than Victor Hanescu. There is also no doubt that Victor Hanescu is more comfortable on clay than Bernard Tomic. While I was going to avoid this match altogether, I think Tomic has a bit of a point to prove here and he will be eager to progress in what he sees as "a good draw" for himself. It has been a tumultuous period for Tomic with headbuttgate but Tomic has been practising in Monte-Carlo for the past two weeks on clay courts and he seems quite confident about his chances. Tomic is available @ 3.35 on Betfair and, having seen his young Australian compatriot Kyrgios beating the Worm Stepanek today, I am going to take a chance on him to come through a tight affair with the veteran Romanian.
F Mayer v Istomin: I think Florian Mayer will win this one for sure. He has shown some of his best form on red clay, while Istomin is almost allergic to it. Mayer is 1.51 but it seems a sure thing to me. Anti-Istomins at the ready!
Zeballos v Pospisil: Apart from Novak Djokovic, Horacio Zeballos is the only man to beat Rafa Nadal in 2013. And it was in a final. On clay. While i am not suggesting Nadal was at his best, I am certain that he was at a higher level than Vasek Pospisil will be at tomorrow. Pospisil is a hard court player, Zeballos is at his best on clay. I have the Argentine coming through in 3 or 4 sets tomorrow @ 1.70 on Betfair.
Andujar v Youzhny: This one could be the match of the day tomorrow. I am going with the form man, and the clay court specialist, Pablo Andujar to win it. Andujar in available @ slight odds-against on Betfair and I think he might just have too much for The General tomorrow. I expect it to be close, possibly even a five-setter, but Andujar has the clay court guile and craft, and I think he will sneak this one.
They are all my picks for tomorrow. I was going to recommend Simone Bolelli who plays Yen Hsun Lu, but Bolelli's price has drifted alarmingly. He began @ 1.88 and is now trading @ 2.74 so that is setting off alarm bells for me and I will stay away from it, even though I think the Italian is far better on clay than Lu. Other players I expect to notch up a W beside their name tomorrow are: Djokovic, Tipsarevic, Haas, Paire, Davydenko, Wawrinka, Verdasco, Garcia-Lopez, Kohlscreiber, Dolgopolov, and Dimitrov.
Hopefully we can leave the first round behind tomorrow with a good day and a better idea of who is playing well and who is only making up the numbers! I think it is always easier to pick winners from the second round onwards when you can guage the players in this tournament based on their first round match and see how they will match up with their next opponent. Until this time tomorrow, enjoy the tennis and good luck! :)
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