The Mutua Madrid Masters takes place this week and brings us back to the scene of last year's infamous blue clay. Unfortunately, from a spectator's point of view, the blue clay is gone and has been replaced by the old, traditional red stuff. The main guys on the tour - Djokovic & Rafa included - had threatened to boycott this year's event if the blue clay remained so the tournament organisers had no choice really!
In general, I think this Masters 1000 is the most difficult to predict of all nine 1000s. The clay here does not play like the clay of Rome, Monte-Carlo, and Roland Garros. It is far faster clay, and the venue is at altitude meaning the balls can fly through the air a lot more than usual. I think some of the players rate this 1000 a notch below Rome or Monte-Carlo and so it can be quite hard to predict a winner here. Tomas Berdych, for example, was unlucky not to win the final here last year against Federer, and both of those are available at astronomical prices to win the tournament this year.
Looking at the four quarters, here are my general thoughts on this year's draw:
Q1: This is probably the most unpredictable quarter and contains quite a few of the big names. Dimitrov will give Djokovic a stern test early doors, while Raonic, Davydenko, Wawrinka, Dolgopolov, and Tsonga can all be found lurking here. One would expect Djokovic to progress to the semis but you can't be sure. I will take Nole to beat big Jo Willy for a spot in the semis.
Q2: This section of the draw is pretty much between Murray, Juan Monaco (to a lesser extent), and Tomas Berdych. I see Berdych coming through to face Murray in the quarter final with the winner of that going on to meet probably Nole in the semis. Given Berdych's performance here last yeah, plus the fact that he has points to defend, don't be surprised if he emerges from quarter 2 at the expense of Murray.
Q3: Quarter three is a bit of a joke quarter and the draw could not possibly have been better for Nadal. He has only Almagro, Tommy Haas, and David Ferrer to contend with. Haas will no doubt be tired from his Munich title run and the other two, with all due respect (haha) are Rafa's puppets on a clay court. So, there is nothing to see in this quarter. Nadal to emerge without dropping a set. Or a game. Or a point!!?
Q4: Federer would have liked this quarter as soon as he looked at the draw. His return has been made easier with the notable lack of any threats in his quarter to what will be a rare title defence on clay. Only Gasquet or Isner could potentially upset the great man and a meeting with Rafa in the SF is almost guaranteed.
So, the SF lineup for me maybe looks like this: Novak v Berdych, Rafa v Fed. The smart money would be on another Rafa-Nole final with Nole winning again. Looking for value in the draw, I have taken Berdych for a very small stake @ 50/1 on Betfair while Federer looks much too big @ 20/1 on Betfair as well. They were the final pairing last year and so offer some value to have another decent run here at a venue that clearly suits them.
Tomorrow, in first round action, there are two matches which arouse my interest. I am going to have Jurgen Melzer to beat Kei Nishikori @ 3.30 on the exchanges. Melzer leads the head to head 1-0 , is much more comfortable on clay than the Japanese man, and I have a feeling the altitude might suit him better than Kei. It might not come off but it is one of those gut feeling matches so I am going for it.
The other match tomorrow is for Feliciano Lopez to beat Daniel Gimeno-Traver @ 2.40 on the exchanges. I am fully aware that Lopez is just returning form an extended injury lay-off but Gimeno Traver is certainly a welcome opener. Lopez has a 1-0 head to head advantage, has played very well here before (third set tie-break loss to Federer), and, much like his boyfriend Fernando Verdasco :-P, he is a resident of Madrid!! I don't like Lopez much, but I think he might get this done tomorrow, probably in three sets.
That's all for now. Thanks for reading! Enjoy the tennis :)
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