The draw for the 2013 French Open takes place in Paris tomorrow morning. Until we see the draw and actually go through it with a fine tooth comb, we can merely speculate.
So, speculate we will! The tournament looks like a bit of a shoot-out between Rafa Nadal, the number 3 seed, and Novak Djokovic, the number 1. Nadal's record here speaks for itself. Robin Soderling inflicted his only defeat on these courts in 2009 (although John Isner came close in 2011) and, he comes back as defending champion once again. Djokovic, the world number one, comes into this tournament on the back of upset losses in Madrid and Rome to Dimitrov & Berdych respectively. He did, however, beat Nadal in straight sets in Monte-Carlo to end Nadal's eight year streak there, and that match could have an important bearing on this tournament. I have no doubt that Djokovic will certainly believe in himself here and, he has every right to. Nadal is currently priced @ 1.79 with Djokovic @ 3.35 on the exchanges. Rogere Federer is the next in the betting @ 20/1 and so that gives you some indication of how favoured these two are!
Moving away from Novak and Rafa for a moment, let's take a look at the other contenders. In my book, there are about 3 or 4 other candidates who would be considered as threats. Federer would be an obvious candidate for lots of tennis fans, but, for the slightly more in-tune tennis afficionados, Federer might seem a little washed-up. He looked completely bereft of ideas in his 1 & 3 loss to Nadal in the Rome final, and I am one tennis fan who thinks Federer's best days are a million miles behind him. I think Gulbis Berdych, and Dimitrov all have more of a shout for a title run here than Federer. Wawrinka and David Ferrer have also shown some exceptional form this year and they too are ahead of Federer for me. Indeed, if Ferrer does end up meeting Federer at some stage, I think this will be the time for David, and he will finally get his first win over the Swiss.
Absolutely nobody will want to end up in Ernests Gulbis' quarter, and, looking at it from a Gulbis fan's point of view, I hope he gets into Federer's quarter. The ideal draw for Gulbis would see him drawn against a qualifier followed by someone like Jarrko Nieminen, in Janko Tipsarevic's eighth of the draw, in Federer's quarter, and in Ferrer's half! Is that asking for too much!!? Grigor Dimitrov, much like Gulbis, has all the tools necessary to inflict serious damage. The fact that Toni Nadal has endorsed the Bulgarian's talent shows how highly he is thought of. Berdych is dangerous in any draw but, to be honest, I couldn't see him winning it. Wawrinka has some injury issues lingering over him with a thigh problem and so you couldn't really back him either. I think Ferrer is a very realistic contender for the title, especially if he can land in the same side of the draw as Federer, thus avoiding Rafa & Nole.If that is to happen, Ferrer looks nice value @ 36.00 which could of course be laid off were he to make the final against one of the big two.
Finally, I am going to price up the odds of a complete coin toss tomorrow! Supposedly, the only thing fixed in the draw is that the number 1 seed will avoid the number 2. That means Federer and Djokovic will be kept apart, which in turn means Nadal has a 50% chance of being in Federer's half, and a 50% chance of being in Djokovic's half. I would price it up that Nadal is about 1/5 to be in Federer's half. I am one million percent convinced that these draws are somehow rigged in terms of the top seeds. The tournament organisers want a Rafa - Novak final and will do everything in their power to make that happen. In all fairness, nobody wants to see a damp squib final like Rome was, but it is uncanny how often Novak and Rafa are kept apart in Slam draws. Keep an eye on it tomorrow. I guarantee you Djokovic will be drawn with Ferrer, and Roger will be drawn with Rafa. The other thing I will be looking for is to see where Gulbis will be drawn. I have a feeling he will be drawn in Novak's quarter but I hope he gets Federer, who I think he would beat.
You could do a lot worse than take Gulbis @ 160.00 on the exchanges. If he gets a nice draw tomorrow, that could evaporate pretty quickly!
Until tomorrow! Over and out.
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