Welcome back to the tour everybody - well, not quite the tour but close enough for me after a month of ITF scoreboards! I never did a blog yesterday but got two winners in Tsonga and Ferrer today. I thought Murray would be undercooked and so it proved as big Jo Willy disposed of him very easilly. In the other match, I thought the bet was in trouble at 3-5 down in the first set but from that point Ferrer won ten games to Wawrinka's one. Outdoors is a better situation for Ferrer to find himself against Stan than indoors like when the Swiss beat him at the WTF.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's tennis:
Murray v Wawrinka:
This 5th place play-off is difficult to call as both were poor today but I actually think the 4/5 available on Murray represents the best value as I thought he would be a bit shorter than that. If there was 13/8 or 7/4 available on Stan I would have been tempted but not at 11/10. I was very unimpressed with Wawrinka today who fell asunder against Ferrer from a very good position. He was laughing and joking at his own misses in the second set and I'm not sure what he wanted to get out of this tournament. I think Murray will be more tuned-in for this match tomorrow as he continues on his road to recovery and I will go for him to win this one at 4/5. Small stakes recommended.
Nadal v Ferrer:
Nadal will beat Ferrer, but not all too easily. From a betting point of view, 1/4 is not too bad a price as Nadal often goes off a lot shorter than that against Ferrer and I was expecting more like 1/6 here. The one advantage for Ferrer over Rafa tomorrow is that he has now played a match on this surface and Rafa hasn't. That will be beneficial but Nadal will be fine after a few games and will look to kick off the year with a good win. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Ferrer pushed him close but the only bet I am interested in is Rafa at 1/4 which is not a bet for small stake punters!
Djokovic v Tsonga:
Much like the Nadal-Ferrer match, I think Novak will win this but wouldn't even back it as I respect Jo's game a lot. He has an amazing serve, volley, and forehand but that is offset by a vulnerable backhand and a very poor return of serve. Djokovic is two-time defending champ here and will set up a final with Rafa but a tough match lies in store tomorrow and I won't be having any bet on that one. Tsonga looked good today but Murray really wasn't at his best and Jo didn't have to do too much and got away with his return. Nole won't let him off the hook as easily!
Murray to beat Wawrinka @ 4/5
Rafa to beat Ferrer @ 1/4
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