There are so many potentially good bets to be had on Monday. I am usually drawn to the underdog and I am trying not to get blinded by potentially big wins and good prices. The most important question to ask yourself before you consider a bet on a match is - who do you think will win it? Then look at the price and see is there value. Hopefully we can have a better start to Wimbledon than we did at Roland Garros where week one was bad but week two took off for us. It can be tough picking first round bets - there are 128 matches taking place in the men's and women's singles draws. I am trying to be selective and not get blinded by the sheer volume of bets! Anyway, I will be making selections on a daily basis now. Here are Monday's:
Fognini v Melzer: Jurgen Melzer has a 2-0 winning head to head against Fabio Fognini. Melzer has been in horrendous form this season and I am loathe to recommend him for any bet but he is playing a guy whose worst surface is grass while Melzer should be well suited to it. Melzer serves big and volleys well. Two good assets to have around SW19. Indeed he won the doubles here with Petzschner a few years back so obviously likes it around here. Melzer is available @ 3.20 on the exchanges and it is too big a price for me to resist. I am going to back the Austrian in the hope that his form is returning and he serves as I know he can.
Baghdatis v Cilic: Marcos Baghdatis is one of my favourite ever players. He is a grass court legend and has made a career of playing well on the big stage. As I wrote above, when I ask myself the question - who will win this match? - I have to go with Cilic. He made the final of Queens - was a set up on Murray, and plays well on grass. He is in far better form than Baghdatis, and so, even with the 5.50 available on the Cypriot, I am going to stay away from this one. I would take Baghdatis to get a set if you can get about even money. So the over 3.5 sets market @ even money is worth a bet.
Edmund v Janowicz: This is another one where I am tempted but unsure. Kyle Edmund is 5.50 to beat Janowicz in this one. Janowicz should win it but his form has been dodgy with a couple of injury concerns. Edmund looked impressive at the Aegon International at Eastbourne this week where he took out Kenny de Schepper and pushed Gilles Simon very hard. Edmund could win this one - I am not saying he will. Maybe a small bet on Edmund at 5.50 amd then take over 3.5 sets @ about even money as well.
Kubot v Andreev: Igor Andreev can be had @ 8/1 to beat Lukas Kubot. Kubot is nothing special at all and obviously Andreev has had something up with him. Andreev was a great player even up to two years ago and if he has somehow put whatever was bothering him behind him then he has to be backed @ 8/1 against Lukas Kubot. It's worth a small bet in the hope he turns up! If both were fit, Andreev would be about a 1/3 shot.
Andujar v Mannarino: I am going for Pablo Andujar to beat Adrian Mannarino here. For my Irish readers, Mannarino is the guy who came from a double break down in the fifth set to beat Conor Niland a few years back. He is more suited to grass than Andujar but Andujar is a better player - no doubt about it. At the end of the day, this is still the world number 50 up against the world number 111. I think Andujar is far too big @ 4.00 to beat a guy who is not exactly setting the world alight.
Lacko v Ram: Lukas Lacko is a far far far better tennis player than Rajeev Ram. Lacko hasn't played any grass court tennis this year which is probably why he is 2.20 to win this match. Ram has played qualifiers at 's-Hertogenbosch and Eastbourne and lost to brutal players at each. He is not a particularly good player. Lacko is an inconsistent but incredibly talented player. If he showed up playing his best game, he could win this in easy straights. As it is, I do expect him to win, but not quite in easy straights. Take Lacko @ 2.20
Verdasco v Malisse: This is a grass court specialist against a decent all round player whose worst surface is grass. Malisse has the beatings of Verdasco on grass. The odds are pretty much even money for both. I watched Verdasco lose to Lopez in Eastbourne the other day and wasn't overly impressed. Malisse had a good run at Queens - he almost beat Del Potro and was impressive in that match. He moves very well on this surface and knows how to play the game on grass. I will be backing Malisse for sure in this one. Malisse beat Verdasco at Wimbledon last year in five and I expect something similar on Monday. Maybe Malisse in 4.
Tipsarevic v Troicki: I have had a long and hard think about this one and have come to the conclusion that Troicki is worth a bet of some sort. Troicki is available @ 3.30 on the exchanges. Under usual circumstances I would have gone for Tipsarevic here but he has been woeful this year. Their head to head stands @ 2-1 to Tipsy but Troicki won the Boodles exhibition over the weekend and that will give him good confidence if nothing else. I am going to have some sort of bet on Troicki in this one.
Hewitt v Wawrinka: This is the best match up of the entire first round. I don't know who will win it. The betting is 2.3 Hewitt and 1.7 Stan. Wawrinka lost the 's-Hertogenbosch final to Mahut on Saturday and that could be a negative factor going into this match. Grass is obviously a better surface for Hewitt than it is for Stan but in my book Stan is a much better player than Hewitt is these days. So as you can see, it is a tough one to call. I think the best bet for this one might be to back 5 sets. I think this one has five sets written all over it. You can get over 4.5 sets @ almost 3/1 on Betfair and that is the bet for me. Alternatively, if you want to be a little more adventurous, take Stan to come through in 5 sets @ 7.60.
Moving to the women's on Monday:
Baltacha v Pennetta: I like the experience of the Italian to come through here. Baltacha will be under a lot of home pressume to deliver for the Brits here but I think I would rather have my money on Flavia Pennetta and her odds of 2.08 are acceptable for me, even though grass is not her favourite surface by any means.
Stephens v Hampton: last but not least on Monday, I will take Sloane Stephens to come out on top of Jamie Hampton in a battle of two young up-and-coming Americans. I think Stephens' game should be perfectly suited to grass and she hits a terrific ball. I was impressed with her at Roland Garros and if she can hit the ball that big on clay, then I am excited to see what she can do on grass. I saw Hampton's final against Vesnina at Eastbourne on Monday. While the wind played absolute havoc with the final, I think she will struggle to defend Sloane's weight of shot. Sloane can trouble the best as seen by her victory over Serena in Australia this year.. Take Stephen's to come through @ 2.20.
While all of the above are the only matches I am recommending pre-match on Monday, as always keep an eye on the in-play. Sometimes the best bets can be in-play when a favourite loses the first set or something like that. Just for interest - here are all the guys I think will win tomorrow: Rosol, Robert, Paire, Pospisil, Youzhny, Isner, Rufin, Federer, Almagro, Kuznetsov, Benneteau, Monaco, Nadal, Gulbis, Stepanek, Tsonga, Lu, Mahut, Robredo, and Murray. I am still undecided on Brown v Garcia-Lopez. Brown, if he plays well can win that one for sure and is possibly worth a bet @ almost 3.00 but GGL is in form so I am probably staying away. The last one I can't decide is Kenny de Schepper v Paolo Lorenzi. de Schepper should win because of the surface but he is not a good player. Edmund hammered him last week and the only thing keeping him in the reckoning is his serve and volley game. Lorenzi could be another worth a bet @ 2.80.
Enjoy the tennis and come back to the blog each evening when I will preview the next day. Good luck and enjoy it! :)
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