Monday @ Wimbledon saw the demise of Rafa Nadal at the hands of the Belgian Steve Darcis, a player who is ranked outside the top 100 but has shown supreme grass skills in the past, notably disposing of Berdych at London 2012. Darcis traded at upwards of 100/1 to beat Rafa but, even looking at it now, there is no way you could have made a strong enough case to back him pre-match. I did fancy him +9.5 games alright but didn't even back that unfortunately. The one man in London smiling today apart from Darcis is Roger Federer. Federer now has a decent passage through to the SF where he will face the winner of the Murray/Tsonga QF. As a result, Federer's odds have been slashed to about 4/1 for the outright market. In terms of Monday's bets - it was a mixed bunch but still a decent day. Both of the women we tipped won - Stephens @ 2.30 and Pennetta @ 2.20, while Melzer obliged @ 3.20 and Troicki obliged at a similar price. Unfortunately, neither Baghdatis nor Edmund could get the one set we required while Stan the Man never looked comfortable against Old Man Hewitt. My main profit of the day came from an in-play bet as it often does, this time in the form of Yen Hsun Lu. I knew Lu was too good for James Ward and when he dropped the first set in a breaker I had a good bet on him @ almost 2.30 which was a nice price considering his SP was 1.46. Lu is a serious operator on grass and Murray will know he has a match on his hands next time out.
Now moving on to Tuesday's tennis, here are my selections for both draws:
Klizan v Berdych: Berdych plays Klizan tomorrow in what is a difficult first test for the Czech. Klizan is an accomplished player in his own right and it's not an easy first round for Berdych. I am pretty sure Berdych will win it and I won't recommend a pre-match bet on the Slovak even though his 17.00 odds are enormous.( He took out Tsonga at last year's US Open if anyone remembers that at similar odds.) I will however recommend a 1.55 lay of Berdych to win 3-0. We need Klizan to get a set or more.
Zeballos v Giraldo: I have no great interest in this one but have to back it because of the price. This is a match between two clay court specialists on a foreign surface. Neither is particularly adept on anything bar clay but I still see this as pretty much a fifty/fifty shot and I can't see why there is such a price differential. Zeballos had a nice win over Thiemo de Bakker at The Boodles exhibition over the weekend and that is good enough to show me he has some grass form going into this one. I like 3.20 odds on a coin toss. Take Zeballos for value.
Petzschner v Przysiezny: I think I will take the experience of Petzschner in this one. The young Pole has come through the qualifiers but Petzschner has good grass court pedigree. He won the doubles with Melzer in the past, has a tough slice, and a very good net game. I will take him to win @ 2.30.
Llodra v Nieminen: I am a big Mika Llodra fan as readers of the blog will know. He is a dying breed in terms of his S&V style which is adept on this surface. However, Nieminen is a good bet here in my opinion. Llodra's game is on the wane and Nieminen has a good passing shot in his artillary. He also has a decent return plus a good delivery of his own. Over three sets I would give Llodra a better chance but over five I like Nieminen's chances. I will be backing him at a very generous 2.58 on Betfair.
L Mayer v Bedene: I think Bedene is nailed on for this one. He is a player who gets things done in a matter-of-fact way with the minimum of fuss. He had match point against Querrey in Queens before losing in a final set tie break and he is a far superior player to his opponent on Tuesday. I will take the 1.63 available on Bedene - it is longer than I thought we would get.
Moving onto the women's draw:
Kirilenko v Robson:This is the match I am most interested in on Tuesday. I think Robson is a terrific price @ 3.20 to beat Maria Kirilenko. Kirilenko has been in the quarters here before and is a terrific player in her own right but I think grass is not her best surface. She doesn't hit as big a ball as Robson in my opinion and that could be massive tomorrow. I think the fact that this is Wimbledon and Robson will be carrying all the home hope is going to get her over the line. It is the pair's first meeting but if Robson had to choose any top 10 opposition for the first round, Kirilenko would be the one. Take Robson to progress @ 3.20. Bumper price.
Kerber v Mattek-Sands:Kerber has never beaten Mattek-Sands but the two victories for the American were both on hard courts and were both a few years back. Kerber has terrific grass court potential, as demonstrated by her run to the semis here last year. She will beat Mattek-Sands, hopefully beat her out the gate, and I think 1.50 is a good price to do so.
Lisicki v Schiavone: Like the Kerber bet, my last bet tomorrow is for another German grass court specialist, Sabine Lisicki to take out clay court specialist Francesca Schiavone. Lisicki can be had at close to 1.50 as well and I think both of those are great bets. You could do far worse than back a German double for the pair of them.
Hopefully the recommendations will come through, or at least the vast majority. Robson will be my main hope for Tuesday. Other match winners on Tuesday should be Djokovic, Ferrer, Del Potro, Haas, Gasquet, Tomic (tough call - a personal bet but not a blog recommendation), Seppi, Kudla, Berankis, Levine, Brands, Struff, Sijsling, Zemlja, Chardy, Raonic, Nishikori, Soeda, Blake, Kohlschreiber, Dimitrov, and Gabashvili. I can't really decide who will win between Lopez and Simon. Simon is my preferred choice, even though he lost in Eastbourne. The wind there was farcical so tomorrow is a new day and I might look into backing Simon, but again, no recommended bet.
Enjoy the tennis and best of luck! :)
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