The 2013 Wimbledon Championships begin tomorrow and I am going to go through the draw quarter by quarter and also give a quick synopsis of the women's draw as well as my outright pick for each. Later this evening I will post Monday's picks. Here goes:
Men's Draw:
The men's draw is one of the most lop-sided slam draws I have ever seen. Apart from Novak Djokovic, pretty much every other outright candidate lies in the bottom half. The British hope Andy Murray can count himself very unlucky to have been landed in a half alongside Roger Federer, Jo Wilfried Tsonga, and more importantly, Rafael Nadal. In my opinion, I think there are only three guys who can win this tournament, possibly four. In order, I think Djokovic, Murray, Nadal, and Tsonga are the only potential winners of this tournament. Djokovic has the best chance, given his draw, and given his performance against Nadal in the final of Roland Garros. If Djokovic can push Nadal as close as he did on clay, then I think he can beat him pretty comfortably on grass. Murray is Murray. Finalist here last year, Olympic champion on these courts, Queens winner last week, and perennial home hope. I think he has every single attribute required to win this title. The only thing holding Murray back may be his draw. To win, he will have to come through Becker, Lu, Mahut, Youzhny, Tsonga, Nadal, and Djokovic. That's a pretty tough draw! Nadal is not as big a threat as those two in my opinion. He can win just because he is Nadal and he is a champion, but I think one of the big guys will hit through him. Finally, Tsonga is such a threat. He can beat anyone on his day but is not quite as consistant as he needs to be. He can beat Federer or Nadal for sure I think but I don't think he will beat Murray when they meet in the quarters. Let's go through the draw:
Q1: Djokovic, as top seed, is obviously housed in quarter one. Along side him in this quarter, he finds Tomas Berdych, Richard Gasquet, Tommy Haas, Bernard Tomic, Feliciano Lopez, and Gilles Simon. The top half is the weaker half in terms of outright threats but there are still guys who can do serious damage. I see Djokovic emerging at the expense of Tomas Berdych in the QF although Berdych will have his work cut out just to get that far. Two of the more exciting match-ups of round one in this quarter are Simon v Lopez, and Tomic v Querrey.
Q2: This is the weakest quarter of the draw with the top seeds being Ferrer and Del Potro. Ultimately, I see Ferrer making his way out of this quarter, just because the draw isn't too bad for him and he is such a battler. Usually I would say Del Po would beat him on grass, but Del Po was pathetic against Hewitt at Queens so I wouldn't be backing him to go too far here. Plus, Ferrer pushed Murray hard last year and will be well used to the surface by the time their scheduled meeting comes around. Other dangers in this section include Grigor Dimitrov, Andreas Seppi, Milos Raonic, and Kei Nishikori. I expect Ferrer to progress, dismissing DelPo in the QF.
Q3: Any guy finding himself in the bottom half this year can count themselves slightly unlucky. The draw has conspired against them and if a winner is to emerge from the bottom half, they will have to overcome the odds to do so. This quarter is tough. Federer is the highest seed in it, but, alas for him, he has had the misfortune of the fifth seed Rafa Nadal landing in his section. Federer has historically struggled against the Spaniard but many people still see Federer as a legitimate contender here. Tsonga was asked to give his tournament winner a week ago and went for the veteran Swiss. To be honest, I don't think Federer stands a chance. I would back him to come out second best against any of Djokovic, Murray, Nadal, Tsonga, or Berdych. To win this title, he will have to beat three of those back to back. If the scheduled Federer - Rafa QF materialises, then I will be having a maximum bet on Nadal. Federer is not the man he was and nobody can convince me otherwise. He won Halle last week and looked good doing so. Beating Nadal over five sets is a different story and I don't think he can do it anymore. Other big guns here include Isner, Hewitt, Wawrinka, and Janowicz. I am going for Rafa to take his place in the semis after a QF victory over Federer.
Q4: Andy Murray will have his work cut out to come out of this quarter. Apart from Murray himself, other big players housed here include Tsonga, Benneteau, Malisse, Baghdatis, Cilic, Youzhny, and Gulbis. I do expect Murray to progress, but Tsonga will push him close if their QF match-up materialises. Tsonga himself will have to overcome David Goffin followed by Ernests Gulbis to progress to the third round. Indeed, that Tsonga - Gulbis 2nd round match will be the tie of the round without doubt. Gulbis can win it, as he did against Berdych last year, but he will have has hands full with Jo. I wouldn't write off either of them. Expect Murray to progress.
So, in my book, the semi finals will be Djokovic v Ferrer and Nadal v Murray. I would take Djokovic in 3 and Murray in 4 there, bringing us a Djokovic - Murray final which could go either way. I think Djokovic will have an easier run to the final than Murray and that could be a telling factor if they meet. He is the favourite and rightly so but I think Murray can definitely win it. I won't chose between the two until I see how their form is leading up to it. Paddy Power are offering money back if Murray wins the title so you could do a lot worse than back Djokovic with Paddy Power in which can you can't lose in my book!
Women's draw:
I'm not going into a much detail with the women's draw, but suffice it to say I think Serena will take the trophy again. It would be great to see somebody beat her - it is getting boring watching her win title after title. Her draw is likely to be Zheng in rd 2, followed by Paszek, Lisicki, Kerber, Li Na, and a final v one of Kvitova, Azarenka, or Sharapova. I think it is a pretty tough draw against some very capable grass courters. I also think Kvitova is probably the best outright bet @ bigger than 20/1 as she is a former champ here and can match Serena for power. It looks like Serena will win once again but if I had to back someone, I would do Kvitova and maybe Li Na or one of the Germans Angelique Kerber or Sabine Lisicki.
I will have a blog later with Monday's picks so check back in a few hours. Over and out :)
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