The highlight today was my justification that the odds were indeed wrong for Seppi v Stepanek. I got Seppi @ 7/4 in a tournament where he has lost once in the last 2 years against a guy who is in serious decline. After a slow start, he hammered Radek Stepanek and now looks like a good outright bet. Elsewhere, Donskoy lost a close one to Mahut - he had set point on the Mahut serve to take it to a deciding set and I still think 3.20 was too big for him. In terms of outright winners now, I like Malisse @ 4/1 in Holland and Seppi @ 7/2 in England.
Friday not only brings about the semis at Eastbourne and 's-Hertogenbosch but, more importantly, it also brings around the Wimbledon draw and I can't wait to see where Nadal lands! I think it's exciting that he is seeded 5 - it will spice things up and I'm happy to see it. I will also be keeping a keen eye out for where Gulbis lands as always and hope he gets a good draw. He is the most dangerous non-seed for sure. I will do a full draw analysis tomorrow night but I think this year's Wimbledon can be won by three and possibly four guys only. Djokovic, Murray, Nadal, and Tsonga in that order are the only guys who can win Wimbledon in my opinion. I can make the arguement in my head to rule Tsonga out of the reckoning and I think the winner will almost certainly come from the other three. If I had to narrow it down even further, I would take Rafa out. My reasoning for that is if Djokovic can push him to his absolute limits on clay at Roland Garros, then he can absolutely definitely beat him on grass on a surface that suits him far more. Of the three, grass suits Murray the best. He won the Olympics on these courts last year and won Queens last week so I think you could almost call it a two-horse race between himself and Nole. I will leave the rest of that until tomorrow.
Looking at tomorrow's four semis, I am going to recommend a bet in three of them:
Malisse v Mahut: Malisse is on a hot streak at the moment and seems to have his sights set on the title here this week. I think he will beat Nicolas Mahut and his odds of 1.70 on Betfair seem fair enough. Take the supremely talented Belgian to win this one in a battle of two proper grass courters.
Dodig v Lopez: I like Dodig's work ethic - he is a hard grafter and gets the most out of himself. He is the opposite of Feliciano Lopez who is more interested in photo shoots than learning how to hit a backhand! Lopez's serve is the only thing keeping him in this tournament. He has had a few good wins and, to be fair, is in good form, but I like Dodig to progress here. He is so hungry for it and grass is a good surface for him. he serves well, volleys well, covers the net well, and moves well. Take him to win @ 2.40 on the exchanges. His win over Raonic earlier this week will serve him well in handling Lopez's delivery.
Seppi v Simon: Andreas Seppi continues to be under-rated on this surface and, now, again, he begins as the underdog in a match I expect him to win. As I said before, this venue seems to bring out the best in Seppi. Much like his match today against Stepanek, he will have to overturn a bad head to head record to beat Simon for the first time, but I think grass is a good surface for him and he is capable of out-hitting Simon. He volleys far better and serves better too. Take Seppi @ 2.30
Enjoy the tennis. Fingers crossed for a good draw for Gulbis!! :)
No comments:
Post a Comment