Halle and Queens

After a relatively successful French Open campaign, we now move onto one of the most exciting and anticipated seasons of the tennis calender: the grass court season. Grass courts obviously favour a player who can serve well, can hit big groundstrokes aggressively, can return well, and can play well at the net. Tsonga, Murray, Djokovic,.and Nadal are the four I am expecting great things from this grass court season. I don't see Nadal as a great grass court player but include him because he is a wonderful competitor in general and has won Wimbledon in the past. Federer is a notable omission from the list, given his grass court pedigree but I can't see him winning a slam ever again, and he is a player who will be doing well to make a semi final from now on in my opinion.

This week sees the two main Wimbledon tune-up events take place in Queens Club London and Halle Germany. Let's take a closer look at the two draws before I recommend a bet for tomorrow:

Queens: Andy Murray and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga headline the Queens draw, but, as with Rafa and Nole at the French Open recently, these two best players have been drawn in the same half. To cut to the chase, I expect Murray to win this tournament. He is a former champion here, having also played wonderful tennis to win the Olympics last year and he has another huge advantage over his rivals given the fact that he skipped the French Open in order to rest his back and prepare for a proper assault at the Wimbledon title. Regaining the Queens title is a vital part of his Wimbledon quest and I think he will do it, despite a difficult enough draw. Apart from having to face Jo Tsonga in the semis, Murray will have to stare down the French Open finalist duo of Nicolas Mahut and Mika Llodra one after the other in his first two matches. Both are extremely adept on this surface, Llodra in particular - but Murray is a nightmare opponent for both, given his return and has ability to hit a passing shot from basically anywhere on the court. So, I expect a Murray v Tsonga semi final, and I expect a Berdych v Dimitrov semi final on the other side. I think Dimitrov is another player who should fire on grass, and I have him taking out DelPo if he comes up with his best tennis. I'm going to go out on a limb and say a Dimitrov v Murray final with Murray taking the title. As an outright bet, Paddy Power are giving Murray @15/8 but with the added incentive of your money back if Murray retires from the tournament, which is a great insurance policy given that he skipped the French with a back injury!

Halle: Roger Federer is the top seed in Halle, a place where he is worshipped down to the ground! They have even gone as far as naming a street after him there! Anyway, he will have his hands full to make another successful title run there, given his draw and the fact that nearly all the good guys are in the top half. Richard Gasquet got the best of the draw for sure and in my opinion is a certainty to make the final. From the top half, take your pick: Federer, Haas, Gulbis, Raonic, Baghdatis, Janowicz! So, while Federer can certainly take another Gerry Weber Open crown, I think any of himself, Haas, Gulbis, or Raonic could join Gasquet in the final. Of those, from my point of view, I would of course love to think Gulbis can get there, He is a serious grass court player - it could well be his best surface given his serve and the massive groundies he hits. He did beat Berdych in straight sets in last year's Wimbledon! Anyway, Gulbis is best-priced of the four or five potential champions @ 36.00 on Betfair. He faces a true grass court exponent in the first round when he takes on one of my all-time favourites, Marcos Baghdatos of Cyprus. I see Baghdatis as potentially one of the best players in the world, but he has been a waste of talent pretty much all his career and he has broken my heart over the years! My most memorable Baghdatis victory was when he beat Nadal in Cinci a few years back, 6-4 in the third I think, took me about a week to recover from that one! Anyway, Baggy is probably capable of beating Gulbis in the first round tomorrow but I think he is too inconsistent these days and I will be staying away from that one. To finish my outright synopsis, I will recommend Gasquet @ 7.00 as he will be a finalist for sure in my book and will be about 3.00 at worst case regardless of who he plays in Sunday's final. I will also recommend Gulbis as I think he can progress if he wants to and is worth a small bet @ 36.00. Federer is too short @ 2.30, Haas is 7.80 but I think Gulbis would beat him while Raonic is too short for me @ 10.00.

Take Murray to win Queens @ 15/8
Take Gasquet to win Halle @ 7.00 to lay in the final
Take Gulbis outright Halle winner for a small stake @ 36.00

As a match-bet tomorrow, I only see one bet that interests me. I cannot see why Bernard Tomic is not slightly shorter to beat Benjamin Becker in Queens tomorrow afternoon. Tomic is at his most comfortable on grass - it is his preferred surface. Granted, he retired against Hanescu two sets down in the French, but to be honest, I feel that his hamstring strain might have been an imaginary one and he just wanted  to bail out. He plays Benjamin Becker tomorrow, a man who is more than capable of beating himself. Becker looks great one moment but will throw in a loose service game when you least expect it, and I am anticipating that Tomic will come through quite comfortably @ 1.80 on the exchanges. I have this one backed from yesterday @ 1.88 and so, as you can see, he is shortening all the time.

Enjoy Tuesday's tennis! Over and out :)