The only real upset at Roland Garros on Sunday was Tommy Robredo knocking out the mentally fragile Nico Almagro in five sets. Almagro was up two sets and 4-1 in the third when he decided to throw it all away, and I for one am thrilled to see Robredo through! He made the quarters here in 2003 and he is back again a decade later! I never liked Almagro or his game, and never get involved in any match which he is playing. He is so unreliable and today proved that.
The blog had more success on the women's side today than the men's. We recommended Radwanska to beat Ivanovic which she did in straight sets @ 1.85 while we also predicted Svetlana Kuznetsova to beat Angelique Kerber which she did @ 2.36. Unfortunately, Kevin Anderson could not get the set we hoped for against David Ferrer, and, in truth, he was beaten out the gate. Ferrer looked very easy against Anderson, who was abysmal today. Ferrer takes on Robredo next, and I can't see beyond a straight set win for Ferrer. The match of the day today was Federer and Simon, which was also my best match of the day from a betting point of view. I backed Simon at 30/1 when he was a set down. That was a ludicrous price for someone who has a very respectable record against Federer, and he duly went all the way down to 2.20 in the fifth. I layed him off when he was about 3.00 but still made some very nice profit on that match.
Looking forward to tomorrow's matches, there are two men's matches where I will recommend a bet and one women's.
Youzhny v Haas: this match is an even money shout according to the bookmakers and the exchanges. I would generally agree as both men have been very impressive this season and play a very similar style of game. However, there are some important factors which swing the issue Youzhny's way in my opinion. Firstly, Tommy Haas played a five set marathon against John Isner on Saturday which he has to be still recovering from. A 35 year old body, no matter how good shape he's in, has to suffer in a match like that. Also, and possibly even more significantly, Youzhny has won their last two encounters, most recently in Rome only 2 weeks ago. I think Youzhny should be shorter for this match, around about 1.80, but he is still available @ 2.00 on the exchanges and he is the main recommendation for tomorrow at those prices.
Gasquet v Wawrinka: Stanislas Wawrinka has been playing the tennis of his life in 2013. He is one of the top 5 performers of the year for sure, and Magnus Norman will have him primed for this one. The exchanges initially had this one priced at 2.00 and 2.00 but Wawrinka is now 1.71 which is slightly shorter than I would like. I leave it up to yourself whether to back at that price or not but suffice it to say I really like his chances in this one. It is hard to fathom that these two have only met once, back in 2006 on carpet, but Monday's match could be epic. Expect to see plently of single-handed backhand magic, (much like the Youzhny - Haas match for that matter!), but expect Wawrinka to progress, probably in 4.
Schiavone v Azarenka: this is a match I have been waiting a few days for. Former champ Schiavone has looked good in this draw so far, and hammered Bartoli in the last round. She is available @ 5/1 to win the match against Azarenka who is not a clay courter, and is available + 5.5 games @ 2.06 as well. I think she is worth a bet in both of those markets. Azarenka dropped a set and looked sluggish in her last round against Cornet, and I think Schiavone could give her plenty of bother. Even is she doesn't win, the former Italian champion should be definitely available to trade with an SP of 6.00.
In other round of 16 action tomorrow in both draws, I expect wins for: Djokovic, Nadal, Sharapova, Kirilenko, and Jankovic. Keep an eye on the action in play and enjoy the tennis. Hopefully Youzhny can deliver and make it a green day for the blog! Over and out :)
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