The women's semi-finals went exactly as we predicted with Serena coming through easily against Sara Errani and Maria Sharapova winning in three sets against Vika Azarenka. Sharapova began the match @ 1.95 favourite and we recommeded that along with over 2.5 sets @ 5/4 with the bookies. Serena will have a tougher test on her hands when she faces Sharapova on Saturday but we will discuss that tomorrow. In the meantime, let's take a look at tomorrow's men's semi-finals.
Nadal v Djokovic: this is a match up between the two best tennis players in the world. It is a match which should, in reality, be the final here. But the draw threw a spanner in the works and here we are with a gigantic semi final. I have thought long and hard about this and I have come up with my conclusion: Nadal is going to win. I can't look past him. It's on clay. It's his tournament. It's best of five. And Nadal is the greatest clay courter of all time. Clay is more about sustaining a very good level as opposed to hitting spectacular winnners. When thinking about this match from a betting point of view, I thought, "who would I rather have my money riding on?" and the answer is, unquestionably, Rafa Nadal. I thought before the tournament that the odds would be more like 1/2 and 6/4 should this match-up arise, but Nadal is available @ 1.70 on Betfair and I think it is slightly too big. I think we will have a terrific contest and I think it will be four or five sets whoever wins it. I'm going to take Nadal. He has the clay experience and all the wins on this court. I think the hot conditions will help Nadal and allow the ball to bounce higher which plays into his hands. Nadal to progress in 5.
Ferrer v Tsonga: this match is a must-bet in my opinion. I cannot see how Ferrer will be beaten on clay by Jo Tsonga. This is five sets and it is Ferrer's best surface by far. Behind Nadal and Djokovic, David Ferrer is the best player in the world on clay. His form has been relentless and he is a clay courter to the core. Tsonga will find things very different against Ferrer than he did in his last round against Federror.. Ferrer will contribute very very little in terms of unforced errors and his percentage play is so good. Like all great Spaniards, he pretty much takes the net out of the equation on the forehand side, and his backhand is so solid. Tsonga has the more explosive shots for sure, including the serve, but I would take solid over explosive any day in a best of 5 set clay match. Ferrer in 4. Back him to win @ 1.75.
Enjoy the tennis and hopefully it will be a winning day. Over and out :)
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